Richmond, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

341
FXUS61 KILN 091046
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
646 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly faster progression of a cold front tonight into Sunday will
limit the potential for showers on Sunday. Add a key message about
the system for midweek.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Some showers will occur from time to time through the weekend.

2) Showers and possibly some thunderstorms expected Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

2) Temperatures will be normal to below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Multiple weak disturbances moving through the base of an upper trough
will continue to bring some showers to the region through the
weekend.

Showers moving across the area to start the period will diminish as
they move east out of the region during the early to mid morning.
Some weak instability will develop across northern Ohio this
afternoon. The next disturbance will push a weak cold front east
southeast across the Great Lakes with the tail end trailing back
across northern Ohio into central Indiana. Showers and possibly some
thunderstorms will develop along this front north of the area this
afternoon with this activity possibly reaching the far northern
counties of the forecast area. While not overly impressive, it is not
out of the question that any storms could produce some small hail
and gusty winds.

The front will slide southeast tonight with some discrepancy within
the model suite whether that makes it all of the way through the
forecast area tonight or whether it lags into Sunday. A few
additional showers could develop along and behind the front with the
next weak impulse tonight, although coverage looks minimal. Yet
another weak short wave could result in some showers moving across
Kentucky on Sunday and possibly affecting the far southeast part of
the forecast area, although most activity should be south of the
area.


KEY MESSAGE 2)
A short wave moving out of the Canadian Rockies on Monday will
amplify as it drops southeast creating a closed low as it moves
through the Great Lakes. There is pretty good agreement within the
model suite with fairly low spread in mid level height forecast
until this feature passes east of the region. So relatively high
confidence in forecasting that the associated surface low will pass
north of the area but the trailing cold front will cross the region
on Wednesday.

Best chance of showers may be Tuesday night with the initial height
falls. Whether much instability can develop between these departing
showers and the cold front is something to watch. At this stage,
forecast instability is modest at best and focused more across
eastern Ohio, which also where any weak signal in AI severe outlooks
is placed.


KEY MESSAGE 3)
Warming trend will continue for today with readings getting back to
near normal. But after the cold front moves through tonight into
Sunday morning, temperatures will fall back below normal. The coolest
period will be Monday into Monday night when high pressure builds
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will move past the terminals early in the period. After that,
there are some MVFR ceilings in the region which will likely impact
KDAY to KCMH/KLCK for a few hours. Clouds will clear out region wide
towards 18Z. Winds may gust to around 20 kt at that point and then
decrease again towards 00Z. A cold front will sag southeast tonight.
This will bring a wind shift but at this point it appears that
conditions will remain VFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...